Elder Law FAX -- March 13, 2006

12 Questions Predict Your Risk of Dying
Would you like to know what your risk of dying is over the next four years? Whether you will draw your last breath sometime between now and March 2010?

That's the premise behind a recent national news story about a twelve-question survey published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Actually, the quiz is a little more complicated than that. According to Dr. Sei J. Lee, a geriatrics researcher at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center and lead author of the article, the quiz is actually designed for older adults (age 50 and older) who aren't living in nursing homes or other long-term care institutions.

"It is a very natural and human question to want to know, 'what is going to happen to me in the future?'" Dr. Lee told the media. "We know when we talk to doctors that they feel uncomfortable giving prognostic information. ... It takes being wrong once."

The survey includes the topics one would expect: age, weight, family history, current illnesses, smoking, and limitations on activities of daily living.

Researchers say the quiz is about 81 percent accurate. Even though the answers predict with some accuracy risk of dying over the next four years, researchers caution that a bad score does not necessarily spell doom. Change of diet and exercise can alter the odds.

Ready to take the quiz?

1. Your age.
Give yourself points based on your age.
60-64: 1 point
65-69: 2 points
70-74: 3 points
75-79: 4 points
80-84: 5 points
85 and older: 7 points

2. Give yourself 2 points if you are a male, no points if you are female.

3. Calculate your body-mass index (BMI). Take your weight in pounds, divide by your height in inches squared, and multiply by 703. Give yourself 1 point if your BMI is less than 25.

4. Two points if you have diabetes or high blood sugar.

5. Two points if you have cancer or a malignant tumor.

6. Two points if you have chronic lung disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at home.

7. Two points if you have congestive heart failure.

8. Two points if you smoked cigarettes in the past week.

9. Two points if you have difficulty bathing or showering because of a health or memory problem.

10. Two points if you have difficulty managing money or paying bills because of a health or memory problem.

11. Two points if you have difficulty walking several blocks because of a health problem.

12. Two points if you have difficulty pushing or pulling large objects, such as a chair, because of health problems.

Here is your risk of dying over the next four years:
0-5 points: Less than 4%
6-9 points: 15% risk
10-13 points: 42% risk
14+ points: 64% risk

Remember that you can improve your odds by eliminating or controlling risk factors, such as improving your diet or getting more exercise. Discuss the results of the quiz with your doctor before embarking on any such program.

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Elder Law FAX is published every other Monday by the Elder Law Practice of Timothy L. Takacs, with offices in Hendersonville and Cookeville, Tennessee. Visit us on the Web at http://www.tn-elderlaw.com. Copyright 2006 by the Elder Law Practice of Timothy L. Takacs. Would you like Elder Law FAX e-mailed to you free? To subscribe, please use the Elder Law FAX Subscription Form at http://www.tn-elderlaw.com/faxform.html.